How Judge Rob Kelly’s Budget Process Produced Over $70 Million in Excess Collections — and Then Claimed Scarcity

by Jacob Wellnitz, Liberty In Action Board Member

Note: This article has been updated for clarity

Kerr County government is often described as cautious, conservative, and fiscally responsible. That reputation deserves examination based on audited numbers, not rhetoric.

Using Kerr County’s own Annual Comprehensive Financial Reports, published in the Auditor’s section of the county website, we reviewed total revenues and total expenses from fiscal year 2018 through fiscal year 2024.

Across those seven years, the county’s audited financial statements report cumulative positive “changes in net position” totaling over $70 million. In plain terms, over that period total revenues exceeded total expenses by more than $70 million.

Those figures are not estimates or projections. They come directly from the county’s audited Statements of Activities. They include all revenue sources:

• property taxes
• sales taxes
• fees
• investment income
• state and federal grants

Some grants are restricted in use. The point here is not the source of the revenue but the pattern reflected in the totals: year after year, overall inflows exceeded overall expenses by substantial margins.

In a county of roughly 54,000 residents, that cumulative positive margin represents about $1,300 per resident over seven years, or roughly $200 per resident per year.

Government is not a business designed to produce routine multi-million-dollar annual operating margins. A county exists to provide defined public services at the lowest necessary cost. When revenues consistently exceed expenses by large amounts and tax rates are not meaningfully compressed in response, that reflects a budgeting philosophy.

It is not an accounting error. It is a policy choice.

The annual figures illustrate the pattern:

• 2018: +$16 million
• 2019: +$8.6 million
• 2020: +$5.7 million
• 2021: +$5.6 million
• 2022: +$18.4 million
• 2023: +$8.6 million
• 2024: +$10.8 million

This was not a single anomalous year. It was a sustained trend.

Over the same broader period, county cash balances increased significantly, rising from roughly $12 million in 2013 to over $43 million by 2024. While not all of the over $70 million translated directly into unrestricted cash, the steady growth in balances reflects the reality that revenues repeatedly outpaced expenditures.

At the same time, county leadership often emphasized financial strain. Infrastructure was described as costly. Road projects were framed as difficult to afford. Disaster response was presented as fiscally threatening. That narrative is difficult to reconcile with seven consecutive years of positive operating results in the millions.

The phrase “no-new-revenue rate” has been used to reassure taxpayers. Yet families do not pay in rates. They pay in dollars. When property valuations rise, total collections rise. If total revenues consistently exceed total expenses, leadership has discretion in future rate setting. It can define reserve ceilings. It can compress rates. It can realign projections to actual spending behavior.

Under Judge Rob Kelly’s tenure, the budgeting framework that produced more than $70 million in cumulative positive results from 2018 through 2024 remained intact. Incremental budgeting continued. Baselines rolled forward. Projections were funded. Actual spending came in lower. Positive margins accumulated.

The core question is not whether the county complied with accounting standards. It did. The question is whether a system that repeatedly produces large cumulative surpluses should trigger structural reform.

A fiscally conservative approach would treat sustained multi-year positive margins as a signal. It would examine whether tax rates should be adjusted downward once adequate reserves are reached. It would establish defined reserve targets with clear ceilings rather than allowing balances to expand without formal limits.

There is also an opportunity cost. When government retains funds beyond what is required to cover annual expenses, those dollars remain outside the private economy. Had a comparable amount remained in private hands over the same period and earned long-term market returns, the compounded value would have been materially higher. That represents foregone private growth, not merely a balance sheet statistic.

This is ultimately a governance issue.

Judge Rob Kelly has publicly identified Tom Jones as his preferred successor, and Jones has aligned Wayne Uecker as his preferred candidate for Precinct 1. None have publicly committed to structural budget reform such as zero-based or targeted budgeting.

By contrast, James Stewart for County Judge and Clayson Lambert for Commissioner, Precinct 1 and Randy Murphy, Precinct 4 have publicly supported budgeting reforms that require justification for expenditures rather than allowing automatic year-over-year baseline expansion.

Judge Rob Kelly has publicly identified Tom Jones as his preferred successor, and Jones has aligned Wayne Uecker as his preferred candidate for Precinct 1. None have publicly mentioned and committed to structural budget reform such as zero-based or targeted budgeting. If they were informed and concerned, they would have done so prior to the start of early voting.

The distinction before voters is structural. Will Kerr County continue with a budgeting model that produced over $70 million in cumulative positive operating results from 2018 through 2024? Or will it adopt defined reserve limits and reexamine how tax rates are set when revenues consistently exceed expenses?

Public funds are a trust. They are not a profit center.

The audited numbers are clear. The policy question is whether sustained cumulative surpluses should prompt reform or be treated as routine. That decision now rests with the voters.

Early voting runs February 17-27.
Election Day is March 3.

The facts are public. The choice is structural.